Forecasting Tools

0.2.90 verified Sat May 09 auth: no python

AI forecasting and research tools to help humans reason about and forecast the future. Current version 0.2.90, requires Python >=3.11, <4.0. Maintained actively on GitHub by Metaculus.

pip install forecasting-tools

Common errors

error ImportError: cannot import name 'ForecastingTools' from 'forecasting_tools' ↓

cause Class was renamed from ForecastingTools to ForecastTools in v0.2.0.

fix

Use 'from forecasting_tools import ForecastTools'.

error ValueError: API key not provided. Set METACULUS_API_KEY environment variable. ↓

cause No API key passed or set in environment.

fix

Set METACULUS_API_KEY=your_key in environment or pass api_key='your_key'.

error AttributeError: 'ForecastTools' object has no attribute 'predict' ↓

cause Function 'predict' was removed in v0.2.5, replaced by 'forecast'.

fix

Use ft.forecast(...) instead.

Warnings

breaking Class renamed from 'ForecastingTools' to 'ForecastTools' in v0.2.0. Old import breaks. ↓

fix Use 'from forecasting_tools import ForecastTools'.

deprecated Function 'predict' deprecated in v0.2.5, replaced by 'forecast'. ↓

fix Use ft.forecast(...) instead of ft.predict(...).

gotcha API key required; if not set, ForecastTools raises ValueError. Many users forget to set environment variable. ↓

fix Set METACULUS_API_KEY environment variable or pass api_key argument.

Imports

ForecastTools

wrong

from forecasting_tools import ForecastingTools

correct

from forecasting_tools import ForecastTools

Class name is ForecastTools (no 'ing').

run_forecast

wrong

from forecasting_tools.forecast import run_forecast

correct

from forecasting_tools import run_forecast

run_forecast is top-level, not in submodule.

Quickstart

Initialize with API key and run a forecast.

import os
from forecasting_tools import ForecastTools

api_key = os.environ.get('METACULUS_API_KEY', '')
ft = ForecastTools(api_key=api_key)
result = ft.forecast(question='Will AGI be achieved by 2030?')
print(result)